Microsoft Extends Losing Streak Despite Earnings Beat; Is Microsoft A Sell Now?
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Microsoft (MSFT) stock undercut a key level Tuesday during a stock market sell-off spurred by valuation concerns for lofty tech stocks. Microsoft shares marked a fifth consecutive loss following the software heavyweight's quarterly earnings report last week.
Shares remain in a flat base with a buy point of 555.45. The buy point is also Microsoft stock's all-time high, according to IBD MarketSurge chart analysis tools. Is Microsoft a buy or sell now?
Last week, the midpoint of Microsoft's revenue outlook of $80.05 billion for the current quarter came in a touch lower than estimates of $80.2 billion. The company posted a 23% rise in fiscal first-quarter earnings to $4.13 a share on an 18% sales increase to $77.7 billion from a year earlier. The figures beat Wall Street's view of $3.67 per share on sales of $75.38 billion.
The stock is one of the Magnificent Seven leaders. For Microsoft's fiscal 2026, which started on July 1, Wall Street is looking for a 17% earnings increase to $16.02 per share. In 2027, analysts see profit growing 17% to $18.75 per share.
Analysts Raise Price Target For Microsoft Stock
Microsoft shares gapped up recently as the company reached a deal with OpenAI that values its stake in the ChatGPT creator at $135 billion.
Ahead of the tech giant's earnings report, Guggenheim analysts raised their price target to 586 with a buy rating. All 61 research firms polled by FactSet now have a buy rating, according to Barron's. Analysts are encouraged by Microsoft's AI-enabled cloud platform and Azure's recurring revenue, and they expect quarterly revenue beats in fiscal 2026.
In September, Morgan Stanley named Microsoft its top pick in the software sector. It raised its price target to 625 from 582 amid a "broadening set of growth drivers."
Analysts noted Microsoft's record of double-digit earnings and sales growth, high dividend yields, share repurchases, and a strong Azure growth outlook.
Are These Magnificent Seven Stocks A Buy Now?
Alphabet | Amazon | Apple | Meta | Microsoft | Nvidia | Tesla
Open AI Partnership
Microsoft's Azure business — its cloud computing segment — has been benefiting since the company partnered with OpenAI.
Melius research analysts observed in July that, together, the two companies can transform the software-as-a-service industry through Agentic AI tools that "offer greater control, customization, and efficiency compared to traditional SaaS."
Microsoft shares gapped up after results for the June-ended quarter on July 31. Earnings grew 24% to $3.65 per share and sales rose 18% to $76.4 billion. Revenue from Azure and cloud services grew 39%. For the full year, sales from Azure grew to more than $75 billion — a 34% increase.
Microsoft also said it returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in its fiscal fourth quarter.
Microsoft is a IBD Long-Term Leader and among IBD's Tech Leaders to watch. The stock also leads the desktop software industry group, according to IBD Stock Checkup.
Microsoft holds a strong Composite Rating of 91 on a scale of 1 to 99. Steady earnings growth over the past eight quarters has helped land the stock an Earnings Per Share Rating of 96.
The Relative Strength Rating of 70 is below Investor's Business Daily's recommended threshold of 80. Another point to note is the relative strength line, which flatlined as the stock built its base after gapping up on earnings on July 31 and has started falling this week.
Though the stock remains in a base it has undercut its 50-day moving average. The weak reaction to earnings should caution investors. It is best to wait until Microsoft retakes the key level.
Microsoft Stock: Funds Ownership
Mutual funds have been net sellers of the stock over the past 13 weeks, giving Microsoft an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of C-.
But over a longer term, strong support from institutional managers is evident in MarketSurge's quarterly fund ownership data. Over the past eight quarters, more than 10,000 funds have held shares.
Demand for the stock has also been running high over the past 50 trading days, giving Microsoft stock an up/down volume ratio of 1.2.
Total fund ownership sits at 43% of outstanding shares. In the IBD mutual fund index, the MFS Growth Fund (MFEGX) and the AllSpring Growth Fund (SGRAX) hold Microsoft shares.
Please follow VRamakrishnan on X/Twitter for more news on the stock market today.
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